Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

There is no relevant economic news set for release today, but we have two afternoon events that are worth watching. First will be results of today’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 PM ET. Both of last week’s long-term auctions drew a lackluster demand from investors compared to other recent sales. If there is a stronger demand for today’s securities than last week’s sales, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates improve slightly before the end of the day. On the other hand, another soft sale could pressure the bond market and lead to an upward revision in rates later today.

Medium

Unknown

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Today’s second afternoon event will be the 2:00 PM ET release of the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting. Traders will be looking for any indication of what the Fed is considering doing at next month's meeting. The consensus just a few months ago was a third quarter-point rate cut of the year, but the government shutdown that blocked key data from being released puts that into question. These minutes will help show how the lack of data was affecting the Fed’s thought process. Now that the shutdown has ended, they should have at least some of the delayed data before they meet again December 9-10th. However, not knowing which reports they will have before their next FOMC meeting could have bond traders looking backward to the previous meeting to help form an opinion about what is likely to happen next month.

High

Unknown

Employment Situation

Tomorrow is likely to be an active day for the bond and mortgage markets. We are set to get a bunch of employment data and a housing report tomorrow morning. The big news will come at 8:30 AM ET when September’s monthly Employment report is finally released. It is expected to show the unemployment rate held at August’s 4.3%, while 50,000 new jobs were added to the economy and earnings rose 0.3%. Favorable news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be an increase in unemployment, a smaller payroll number and softer than predicted earnings that indicate the employment sector was weaker than expected. This would also improve the odds of the Fed making another rate cut at next month's FOMC meeting. That said, this data is a bit aged now and mostly predates the Fed’s two rate cuts, so we may not get a strong reaction unless there are wide variances between forecasts and actual numbers.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Also early tomorrow morning will be a catchup of sorts for the weekly unemployment updates that we missed during the shutdown. A partial accidental release of one week’s data was posted on a government site yesterday. It is hard to tell how the markets will react to this data tomorrow. It will give more recent insight into the employment situation than September’s monthly report, but weekly claims aren’t usually a big market mover. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the sector, meaning higher numbers would be more favorable for rates than unexpected low numbers.

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

October's Existing Home Sales report will be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. The National Association of Realtors is expected to announce an increase in home resales, meaning the housing sector improved slightly last month. That would be relatively bad news for the bond market and mortgage pricing because a stronger housing sector makes broader economic growth more likely. But unless it shows a significant surprise, this data will likely not have a major impact on rates because the employment sector is drawing much more attention than the housing sector.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Employment Situation

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Float / Lock Recommendation