Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, January 30th

Friday’s bond market has opened down slightly despite some very unfavorable economic news. Stocks are responding negatively to the data with the Dow down 117 points and the Nasdaq down 38 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (4.24%), which should cause a minor increase in this morning’s mortgage rates.

2/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.24%

117

Dow

48,953

38

NASDAQ

23,646

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Neutral

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Yesterday’s 7-year Treasury Note auction didn’t go so well with the benchmarks indicating investor demand for the securities was below average compared to other recent sales. Fortunately, this sale was for mid-term securities and not long-term debt that are closer to mortgage bonds. Bonds had little reaction to the 1:00 PM ET results announcement, meaning the auction was a non-factor for mortgage rates.

High

Negative

Producer Price Index (PPI)

The 8:30 AM ET release of December’s Producer Price Index (PPI) was this morning’s big economic news. It revealed wholesale level inflation was much stronger than expected as the year came to a close. The overall PPI rose 0.5% last month while the core reading spiked 0.7%. Analysts were expecting to see increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Year-over-year numbers weren’t any better than the monthly. On an annual basis, the overall PPI held at November’s 3.0% pace and the core data moved up to 3.3%, but both were expected to be at a slower pace than the previous month. These increases are being attributed to tariff-related costs moving through the levels of the economy, now being passed onto wholesalers and likely to consumers in the future. This raises alarms about the direction of inflation, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

High

Unknown

ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

Next week has only a few relevant economic reports scheduled for release, but it is the typical group of new month reports that include two that are considered highly important to the markets. Activities will begin late Monday morning when January’s Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index is posted. We will also get the almighty governmental Employment report Friday that will give plenty of statistics on January’s employment situation. Now that the FOMC is behind us, so is their mandatory quiet period for members. This means we will start to get speeches and other similar events with Fed-members next week also. Look for details on all of next week’s calendar in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Seminole Moneytree, Inc.

2882 W Lake Mary Blvd
Lake Mary, FL 32746

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